Eritrea has replaced Ethiopia’s old IGAD role with a New East African Order.
Eritrea has successfully created its own order in East Africa, making itself the regional power in East Africa with its own allies and security partners in East Africa and the Red Sea region. This new power dynamic ends the 27-year Ethiopian-led IGAD hierarchy that ran from 1991 to 2018. Today Eritrea has overcome Ethiopian dominance. Together with key allies, it has created a new dominant role in the region. In this New East African Order, Eritrea stands as the number one power in East Africa. Egypt is replacing Ethiopia as America’s key ally and powerhouse in the region as well.
The New East African Order is Eritrea’s alliance with Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Gulf partners, and proxy forces.
Eritrea created its own New East African Order. This order is dominated by Eritrea and its allies, including Egypt and others. Eritrea formed a new alliance with Egypt, with Sudan — where Eritrea supports the Sudanese government and trains its soldiers — with Somalia, where Eritrea supports the Somali army, and with Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia. This also includes proxies in Ethiopia, such as the TPLF, Fano, and the Ogaden National Liberation Front, which are being supported by the Eritrean government, as well as proxies in Sudan, such as the Eastern Sudanese Liberation Forces and Beja militants, which Eritrea also supports. Eritrea has created its own regional security alliance and order that has replaced the Ethiopian-dominated IGAD. For the first time in three decades, Ethiopia is no longer the key regional player. Ethiopia has less influence in the region.
Ethiopia’s fights with its neighbors made the old IGAD hierarchy collapse.
Ethiopia has tensions with several neighboring countries. There are tensions with Sudan over Ethiopian support for the RSF and disputes over the Sudanese territories of Al-Fashaga and the dam. There are tensions with Somalia due to the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006, as well as Ethiopia’s claims over the northern Somali coast, including Zeila, where Ethiopia wanted a naval base and a lease agreement, and its support for the separatist Somaliland group. There are also tensions with Eritrea, as Ethiopia supports Eritrean armed opposition groups such as Brigade Nahamu, Afar separatists like RSADO, the Eritrean National Congress, and the new Islamist Green Movement of Eritrea. Ethiopia has also declared proposals to invade Eritrea and annex the southern Red Sea regions, including the Assab port of Eritrea. The Ethiopian prime minister even said that Ethiopia would turn Asmara into Gaza if a war broke out. Ethiopian General Bacha also said that Eritrea would not continue to exist if a war broke out, that Ethiopia would invade Eritrea, change Eritrea’s borders, and change its government.
Ethiopia is isolated outside its borders and split inside them.
Ethiopia is in a situation where it has tensions with almost all of its neighbors, even with Kenya over Moyale, where border disputes flared in 2025. Ethiopia also has serious tensions with Egypt over the dam. Ethiopia is growingly isolated, even within its own country. It faces three big rebel groups: the TPLF in the north, against which the Ethiopian government has fought since 2020; Fano, against which it has fought since April 2023; and the OLA, the Oromo Liberation Army. The fourth major opposition group is the Ogaden National Liberation Front, a Somali separatist group from the occupied Somali region of Ethiopia. The ONLF accuses the Ethiopian government of discriminating against Somali people and committing atrocities against them. It believes the Somali people do not belong to Ethiopia and that their lands were annexed by the Ethiopian state during King Menelik. It is seeking self-determination and secession from Ethiopia.
Eritrea and Egypt now lead the New East African Order that buried Ethiopian IGAD primacy.
On the left, the TPLF and Fano are supported by Eritrea and Sudan. We are seeing the formation of a new East African security and power balance in which Ethiopia is growingly isolated and weak, while Eritrea takes the lead with its ally Egypt. Eritrea has also signed a lot of agreements with Egypt, such as the recent maritime agreement, which brings cooperation between Eritrean and Egyptian ports, and the Asmara Alliance of 2024, signed by Cairo, Asmara, and Mogadishu in order to counter Ethiopian claims on the Red Sea, including the illegal MOU between Somaliland and Ethiopia and Ethiopia’s claims on Assab. Egypt has also declared its support for Eritrea. That is the New East African Order: a new power dynamic that ends the 27-year Ethiopian-led IGAD hierarchy.